Like many people, I’m taking a close interest in the current US election, primarily because I dread seeing Donald Trump in the White House again. He represents almost every reprehensible trait a person could have, and they are a threat to US democracy if he gets elected.
Kamala Harris, who I’ve been a fan of since she entered Federal politics, has done very well campaigning in the abbreviated time left to her after Joe Biden decided to step down as the Democrat’s nominee for the next term. However, given Trump and many Republicans have made it clear they will challenge the results if she wins, there may be long-term threats to her presidency if she’s finally elected. Disaffected electors may become a target for rabble rousers to stir up dissent and even open rebellion, especially given how polarised Americans have become in the past decade. We have already seen how misinformation and disinformation have been successfully used during the relief operations to clean up after the hurricane Helene and Milton disasters. Many people in those areas believed the lies and didn’t seek the relief to which they were entitled.
If elected…
If Harris is elected, will she be able to deliver on the promises she made on the campaign trail? I doubt it.
First of all, she needs a compliant Congress, otherwise, like Barack Obama during most of his two terms, she’ll be reliant on her own and the vice-president’s negotiating skills to get any of her policies legislated, which may well be compromised by Republican demands. At the moment, the Republicans look likely to gain the Senate while losing the House of Representatives, so she’ll have a lot of negotiating to do.
Second, the public may not be so responsive to her economic policies when they think other issues have priority. External pressures can constrain her actions. Chief of these is the Middle East situation which, among other things, will seriously affect the cost of living with rising oil prices and delivery costs. The US economy, after running hot for the past year or so, must eventually turn down, possibly dramatically.
To add to these concerns, the increased severity and frequency of natural disasters will take their toll on her government’s resources. The changing climate will also displace inhabitants of the poorer nations, leading to a rise in immigration around the world, including the US.
Finally, disaffected electors, mostly in the south of the country, are unlikely to be appeased by progressive policies, unless of course they significantly improve their lives. Unfortunately, it takes time, maybe years, before such improvements become apparent.
And all of this will be under daily, critical scrutiny by the right-wing press.
She will need luck, and lots of it, to even partially succeed.
